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Which shows will be first to go into the fall TV dead pool?

So far, 20 of this fall’s 25 new network shows have aired. We’ve been tracking tweets about all 25 shows for more than two weeks and today it’s time to check in with our data and see how the shows are doing. I’m going to take my first guesses at which new shows will be cancelled this season, based on a few of our standard quantitative TweetReach metrics. A few caveats before we begin, however…

First, since these shows premiered and air at different times, these initial metrics will be somewhat biased towards the shows that began the earliest in the season. In the next few weeks, this advantage will disappear, but for now, take these numbers with a grain or two of salt. Consider them directional indicators for now. And I’m not including stats for the five shows that haven’t aired at the time of posting. Second, different networks have different audience and revenue expectations from their shows. So just because one show has a smaller reach does not mean it’s less successful than a show with a larger reach on a different network or targeted to a different audience. Finally, this week’s predictions are based on numbers only – we’ll get into the more qualitative and content-based data next week. A terrible show can still generate nearly as much conversation on Twitter as a really good one, and we’ll sort out some of those distinctions in future posts.

So, on to the predictions! I’m going to try a few different models this week to get started. I’ll update these predictions next week when we have more data.

Cancel the lowest performing show on each network, based on reach:

  • ABC – Suburgatory* (14.1M)
  • CBS – A Gifted Man (3.0M)
  • CW – Ringer (6.0M)
  • FOX – Terra Nova (16.5M)
  • NBC – Free Agents (3.3M)

*ABC still has three shows yet to air, so any of them could take over the lead in this position. Also, Suburgatory premiered just last night, so it could easily catch up to its peers in the next week or two.

Cancel the overall lowest performers, based on tweet volume:

1. CW – H8R (1K tweets)
2. CBS – A Gifted Man (3K tweets)
3 (tie). CW – Ringer, NBC – Free Agents, NBC – Prime Suspect (5K tweets)
4. CBS – Unforgettable (6K tweets)
5. ABC – Suburgatory (8K tweets)

Cancel the shows with the fewest people talking about them, based on unique contributors:

1. CW – H8R (<1K)
2. CBS – A Gifted Man (2K)
3 (tie). CW – Ringer (3K), NBC – Free Agents (3K)
4. NBC – Prime Suspect (4K)
5. ABC – Suburgatory (6K)
6. NBC – Whitney (7K)

Based on these three lists, I’d consider A Gifted Man, Free Agents, and Ringer pretty sure bets for cancellation. They show up in all three categories. (I’m giving Suburgatory one more week before we count it out, since it just started yesterday and the others have had more time to generate conversation.) And it’s not looking good for H8R or Prime Suspect either.

Finally, since I’d hate to end this post without saying something about the shows that are doing well on Twitter, here’s a few stats about some of the top performing shows.

The top five shows that seem safe, based on highest reach: 

  1. X Factor (37.3M)
  2. New Girl (21.5M)
  3. Charlie’s Angels (19.6M)
  4. Revenge (17.3M)
  5. Terra Nova (16.5)**

**While Terra Nova is FOX’s lowest performing show so far (it’s competing against the X Factor and New Girl), it still has a higher reach than most of the other shows.

The top five shows that seem safe, based on unique contributors: 

  1. FOX – X Factor (73K)
  2. FOX – New Girl (40K)
  3. FOX – Terra Nova (37K)
  4. ABC – Revenge (26K)
  5. ABC – Pan Am (25K)

We just learned that FOX’s New Girl was picked up for a full season. Based on the tweets, that seems like a good choice. It’s also looking pretty good for NBC’s Up All Night, CW’s The Secret Circle and Hart of Dixie, and CBS’ 2 Broke Girls, but I wouldn’t count my predictive chickens before they hatch. We’ll see what the tweets can tell us after another week of these shows.

So, what do you think? Have you seen any of these shows? Do these lists ring true with your experience? Tell us which shows you think will be cancelled (or picked up) in the comments.

Until next week, happy watching!